OK guys - Im seeing some potential big plays on the horizon

[almly]

Aug 6th. in Austrailia. Mundine vs Echols. Echols is -225. I have only seen Mundine fight once which was against Ottke. I thought he was doing a good job against Ottke until he got KO'd by some BS punch. I was ringside in Phoenix for Echols vs. Grant (or whatever that Rodman wannabees called). I'm thinking Echols is worth the lay here. I dont see him losing this. I think Ottke is a joke and Echols would probably beat him. Pending what Spinch has to say Echols is seriously my play. Fuk the home turf thing - it wont be close enough for a screwing. That is if it goes the distance.

What about JC Candelo against this Garcia guy this Tuesday on ESPN? I dont know who the hell this Garcia guy is but god damn Candelo has some serious grit. I have only seen him against Winky but he is one tough sob. Limited offense but that probably wouldnt be a bad bet either.

I also think Marquez over Gainer isnt the worst idea in the world. I wanna work August like a rented donkey.

 

[sphincter]

a european bud of mine swears that ottke k.o. stunk to high heaven....i didn`t see it....he claimed that it was either a fix or an exhaustion stoppage..i do know that as far as punching power goes,ottke falls somewhere between mia st john and lucia rijker...i`ve never seen mundine myself...

but,putting everything together,i might give mundine the benefit of the doubt in front of his homies and take a flyer on over 7 at -120....

antwun is not a legit super middle....he is coming off a year long layoff.....a gunshot wound(albeit minor,if that`s possible-lol)....

mundine is bigger and from what i read very athletic....

we know echols has a very good chin.....only hopkins got him out of there...and of course,he hits like a mule.....i expect mundine to box......
all this b.s.from mundine about 9/11 and echols wanting to hurt him because of what he said will go out the window by the second round...

i was kinda looking at over 7 in the ishe smith-david estrada fight....i got it at over 6.5 at even but it has jumped to -140 and 7.....

neither guy punches real good(smith`s last 2 bouts were vs an unretired sal lopez(terrible) and a shot sam barr)....he`s getting to much credit in the power dept....he`s persistent and presses,but i think over has a shot...if you want to lay-140...

a friend that has been hot likes candelo..huge experience edge and height advantage.....i also think the over in that bout looks appealing....but you have to pay.......maybe to much...i got it at over 10....but close to -300...i hate doing that....usually the kiss of death for me...

i`m not loosening the rubberband to much on these.....but they are playable....i wouldn`t go crazy....

i also was looking at throwing some beer money on a hedge with under in the lucero bout and lucero +1000.....that`s at pinnacle.....rumors about pacquaio having hepatitis...i`m not buying it.....but,lucero is tough even if untested and fighting in california with main events and lou duva promoting(lucero is lou`s boy)....and the forum in l.a. will be rocking and behind lucero,all his mexican brothers there to root him and fernando on....

he was almost k.o.`ed by mediocre frankie archuletta in the first round....but ended up dominating.......the guy gets back up....and if he can get it to the cards in l.a.,well,you never know....

at 10-1,what the hey....doesn`t take a big investment even without the hedge...

do i really think he beats pacquaio?....probably not....does he have a shot?....maybe....10-1 seems out of line considering all the factors....

and the hedge was because
neither guy jabs....pacquaio is all action and likes to get guys out of there.....he is also 2" taller than lucero....so lucero,who is supposed to be a body puncher,must get inside to be affective....


as i said,a lot of crazy stuff....nothing earth shattering.....a few posibilities....these books are getting shrewd with the boxing....when the lines move sharply one way,it seems to be losing lately...

i don`t trust boxers or boxing...



wager conservatively and carefully....g.l.



btw,5 dimes has echols at -210...

 

[valdosta]

A few things about Mundine-Echols...

1. EXPERIENCE!! Echols has a lot and Mundine doesn't. Mundine fought Ottke and got KTFO by a guy who hits like a girl. I have the fight on tape. Mundine was legitimately laid out for the 10 count. Mundine doesn't spar with good fighters and has only fought 1 real good fighter (ottke). Echols on the otherhand has been around the block and fought a lot stiffer competition.

2. Size difference. Hmmm, I don't really think it will look that big. Mundine isn't a big SMW like Pemberton or Brewer. I think Echols is actually stronger than Mundine.

3. Home advantage. Won't mean shit in this fight. If Mundine gets hit flush he will be ko'ed. If it goe's to the cards that means that Mundine outclassed Echols and deserved to win anyways. Mundine is a better boxer but he makes a lot of mistakes like laying on the ropes which will get him decapitated in this fight.

I played big on Echols, Mundine has a punchers chance early but he won't be able to outbox Echols the whole fight. Echols will keep the pressure on and he pressures much better than Ottke. Another thing to consider is that Echols ALWAYS lands something at some point of the fight. He even landed on Hopkins in BOTH fights but Hopkins has a chin made of granite, Mundine doesn't (to put it mildy)

 

[almly]

Both of you guys are saying the same thing I am. Honest to god, I would not be shocked if Mundine threw that fight. That punch that Ottke hit him with was a joke. So either Mundine is a joke or Ottke and his crew is.

Its like Val said, these guys have fought on different levels. Bottom line, Echols kills him.
Thats my play.

 

[franks.]

Echols-Mundine: I keep asking why the hell is
Echols traveling to Australia for this one? Are
we going to smell some home cooking? Based on
pedigree, Echols would seem to be getting the nod here, by KO even. Echols is truly tuff as nails. Is this one kosher? I have some lingering
doubts. I saw Garcia fight live here in Vegas
and he is a black wanna-be Mayorga. A little
wild for my taste, but he may outwork JC right
out of the gate, but Candelo is the more skilled. I also think Pac Man goes ape shit on
Lucero and tries to end his career. The punch
stats should be off the charts. If I had to bet
I go chalk city here. Echols, JC and under with
Pac and Lucero. But i am smarting from last nite as I had Sheika. So I am a little gun shy
as I had Mayorga to win by KO also. My thinking
my be off a little lately, but I like Echols the most.

 

[sphincter]

franks and valdosta......i`m not saying that mundine is better than echols....as a matter of fact i`ve spent some considerable time on a boxing board with quite a few european guys trying to get an explanation regarding the ottke debacle....and i agree.....echols should win...the competition and experience level is off the charts

all i`m saying is that down under and in front of the hometown fans,with a guy that i believe understands that he has to box....considering the long echols layoff(and that`s critical,imo) ....and the fact that he`s not a master technician,i think mundine has a chance to extend the bout.....

i have been reading that with his new trainer echols won`t be on a search and destroy mission....he will now be a little more conservative and work behind his jab and try and set up his big shots....

that usually doesn`t work 3/4 of the way into your career....he`s been working with winky wright.....echols isn`t winky wright......they are almost total opposites in every meaning of the word....

but,back to the point,echols could very well starch mundine pronto.....i wouldn`t bet the ranch....it`s an opinion......

i am an echols fan....if not for hopkins,i think the guy would have a belt....

but,there`s a nagging question that you have to ask yourself....

we here in the states are familiar with echols and know how tough and what a puncher he is.....he opens at better than a 2-1 fave on mundine`s home court...books protecting themselves....making you lay some wood...



mundine,aside from the ottke loss,is somewhat of an unknown....k.o.`ed by ottke,admittedly a weak puncher...

then,why does the over/under open at even money 7 rounds?......the books aren`t dumb....i think the average guy looks at the facts and says echols walks through this guy.....what`s missing?...

valdosta.....up to the stoppage,how did mundine look vs ottke?......was he in the fight?....what`s your take on the guy?......thanks

[This message was edited by sphincter on July 26, 2003 at 01:52 PM.]

 

[champscorner]

I'm thinking of going with bumbine, only because there really is no value with antwun...

antwun should win this fight, but "strange" things happen overseas....

If the money keeps going on echolls, i may take a shot with bumdine....

nothing big, just a small amount...

again, i realize bumdine has no chin, but if he can survive the early rds, he could box him and take a decision...

but if echolls lands, its "goodnight irene"..lol

 

[sphincter]

let me be perfectly clear....almly threw out the mundine-echols bout and i gave an opinion on the over 7....maybe not something i post as one of my plays....but i think it could happen...

ishe smith-davis estrada over 7 looks o.k....this could be worth a shot...i played it at over 6.5 at basically even money when it hit the board...

the lucero-pacquaion hedge is for chits and giggles.....lucero punches to wide and i can see manny stepping inside and catching him.....but,manny can`t fall asleep early and let lucero build some momentum in front of the home folks....10-1...i`m a sucker...

the over 10 at no more than -300 looks logical in candelo-garcia.....but who wants to lay those odds on an over?.....i played it very lightly....

echols now -195 at 5 dimes....somebody likes mundine....


nothing major here for me.....i`m not gonna recommend stuff just to play and take a shot on losing somebody`s money.....

smith-estrada over 7...looks like the best of a tough group to me right now ...

btw......just checked some ratings and lo and behold the wbc has ole` fitzy vanderpool rated #1......that`s right......top of the heap......the big kahuna......cock of the walk.....

that`s pretty absurd.......considering that the guy has never,ever beaten a top ten contender.......i think the only real contender was back in "95" or "96" when he was stopped by charles murray....


the closest thing he`s seen to a contender is young prospect hercules kyvelos and shop worn ray oliveira(a loss and a draw)....


boxing politics....don`t you just love `em....

if fernando isn`t having steroid withdrawal,he should be able to name the round vs the wide punching,inaccurate,bicyclist vanderpool...

vargas` people took this fight for a reason....they probably had a hand in getting fitzy rated....

if fernando struggles here,it`s time to look for a new line of work.....

if he gets hit with those wild punches,"el feroz" should change his nickname to 'el fernandoblows".....

vanderpool is not on vargas` level....

but vargas is a head case...

[This message was edited by sphincter on July 26, 2003 at 03:43 PM.]

 

[valdosta]

Sphincter- At the time of the stoppage Mundine was behind on all 3 scorecards by a couple of points. I actually had him ahead by 1 until he got KTFO. He did a lot of boxing and backpeddling against Ottke and won a nice amount of rounds BUT was wearing himself down in the process. He used his jab enough to win most of the rounds but he was moving to much. Keep in mind he is running from a guy who hits like a girl. Ottke didn't let his hands go the first 3 rounds and basically gave them to Mundine. Ottke is a slow starter though and often takes his time like that. Regardless, I will say the KO was probably as much endurance as anything. The round before Mundine was koed he was hurt very badly with a chin shot while he was on the ropes. 1 last thing is Mundine can punch a bit, 2 rounds before he got KTFO he hurt Ottke pretty badly with a right hand. Which is exactly why I say he has a punchers chance early. Echols knows he's going to Australia and will need a KO. That's what he will try to do. He will come out swinging like he always does.

 

[valdosta]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by champs corner:
I'm thinking of going with bumbine, only because there really is no value with antwun...

antwun should win this fight, but "strange" things happen overseas....

If the money keeps going on echolls, i may take a shot with bumdine....

nothing big, just a small amount...

again, i realize bumdine has no chin, but if he can survive the early rds, he could box him and take a decision...

but if echolls lands, its "goodnight irene"..lol<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

There's no "value" when you take the loser Ronn

 

[valdosta]

Sphincter- I think Echols wins at some point. The over/under is pretty risky for both ways IMO. Munide IS VERY FAST. He could run the first 6 to 7 rounds and last until the over. Even in that case I think Echols will catch him fading down the stretch like Ottke did. Echols is a LOT more agressive than ottke though so he might not let Mundine run from him. If he fights with Echols in the early rounds someone will get koed

The over/under is extremely risky both ways.

 

[valdosta]

Franks- Echols is going to Australia for 1 simple reason.....MONEY!! He's getting paid well to fight Mundine in his backyard. Considering he has more than 10 kids to support, I can;t blame the guy.

 

[sphincter]

echols was scheduled to go to germany to fight ottke.....but was offered more for the mundine bout........

if he didn`t kayo ottke,he wasn`t gonna win....you don`t get decisions in germany.....

you guys may have pushed me over the edge......pinnacle has echols at -195....i may jump in...........but i hate betting guys coming off year long layoffs and going right into tough fights.....

i had a load on judah and he was much the better man....i knew that....but he was flat as a board...and looked terrible.....couldn`t get off...fought lethargically....injured left hand or not.....

lets hope echols can track down mundine....

i`ll ride almly,franks and valdosta`s coattails here....g.l. to us.....

[This message was edited by sphincter on July 26, 2003 at 06:23 PM.]

 

[valdosta]

I like your other plays Sphincter. There's a good chance that Estrdad-Smith is a distance fight. Smith will win but even if he stops Estrada I think it will be accumulation so it will take several rounds. Good bet on your part.

Pac's chin is suspect so Lucero has a chance I guess. I think Pac overwelms him early though. Pac's bigger, stronger and faster. if Lucero can last the first few rounds, Pac doesn't take a good punch to the head or body so Lucero could have a shot late in the fight. Good bet at +1000 even though I think Pac wins.

The only disagreement I have is on the Garcia-Candelo over. You gave to high of a number. I will come straight out and say Garcia can't KO Candelo. Candelo takes a great punch. I think it is possible that Candelo can stop Garcia. The reason why is because Garcia is so agressive and he runs into punches. I saw him hurt BADLY against Irving Garcia in his last fight. Irving wasn't a puncher at all. There's a goold chance it foes the route but the over is to high for a guy like Garcia who is so agressive and may not have a great chin.

 

[whormoan]

why is nobody commenting on Vargas fight?

 

[sphincter]

v.....at 3-1 you`d be shocked what i bet on this fight....was hardly worth the effort...i bet the over for some action.......


i agree that garcia doesn`t k.o. candelo.....i just think candelo isn`t really a big puncher,either...he`s also an accumulation stoppage type of guy.....i expect garcia to try and smother candelo....candelo is a decent inside fighter for a tall long armed guy.....but i see this bout being somewhat similar to candelo`s bouts with hernandez....

the question is,can garcia take the punishment that hernandez took...we`ll see...

..i like candelo a bit here...haven`t wagered yet.........

as far as pacman goes,at those odds i think everybody thinks he`ll win(lol).....a lottery ticket bet...

notice the odds on o/u in the vargas and pacquaio bouts....have dropped like turds from a tall cow`s ass.....


the unders are now -135 and -145......

as interest in boxing wagering on the net picks up,i wonder how much funny business might result from all this money flying around....

seems like lately,the money hasn`t been correct.....

might be interesting to follow and see how the line moves do....

a couple more ideas.....maybe over 9.5 -225 in lamontagne-brown and over 7.5 in freitas-barrios(-130)....

nothing definite....but i`m looking...